Serie A · Monday, 12 Oct 2026
Chapecoense-sc
Home
1-4
Full time
Arena Condá
Atletico Paranaense
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.92
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.85 - 1.09
Win probability
Home
48%
Draw
25%
Away
27%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
49%
1.92
Double Chance
Home/Draw
73%
1.29
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
66%
1.42
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
2.94
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Chapecoense-sc wins
0
Draws
0
Atletico Paranaense wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
26%
Recent form
40%
33%
Attack
73%
26%
Defence
20%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
48%
Win probability
27%
Home and away record
Chapecoense-sc
last 5 at home
1W
2D
2L
1.00
points a game
1.00
scored a game
1.80
conceded a game
Atletico Paranaense
last 8 away from home
3W
2D
3L
1.38
points a game
1.50
scored a game
1.88
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Chapecoense-sc | Atletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|
| 80% 8/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 10/10 100% |
| 60% 6/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 30% 3/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 6/10 60% |
| 60% 6/10 | Both teams scored | 7/10 70% |
| 20% 2/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 2/10 20% |
| 30% 3/10 | Failed to score | 1/10 10% |
At half time
Chapecoense-sc
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
30%
Behind
50%
Atletico Paranaense
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
40%
Level
50%
Behind
10%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 |
Atletico Paranaense |
34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | +8 | 54 |
| 20 |
Chapecoense-sc |
33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | -35 | 21 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Chapecoense-sc face Atletico Paranaense in Serie A. Chapecoense-sc have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 11 (0.8 points per game). Atletico Paranaense have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 11 and conceding 12 (1.2 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 48% probability backing Chapecoense-sc, home advantage and superior chance creation make Chapecoense-sc to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 48% win probability for Chapecoense-sc, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 27% probability for Atletico Paranaense. Our top recommended betting pick is Chapecoense-sc Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.94 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Monday, 12 Oct 2026 at 22:30 (East Africa Time) at Arena Condá as part of the Serie A.
