UEFA Europa League · Thursday, 22 Oct 2026
Sturm Graz
Home
1-0
Full time
Stadion Graz-Liebenau
Marseille
Away
Recommended tip
Away Win @ 1.65
Predicted score
1 - 2
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.06 - 1.89
Win probability
Home
15%
Draw
22%
Away
63%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
2
57%
1.65
Double Chance
No tip for this market.
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
65%
1.45
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
2.95
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Sturm Graz wins
0
Draws
0
Marseille wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
60%
Recent form
40%
73%
Attack
60%
46%
Defence
40%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
15%
Win probability
63%
Home and away record
Sturm Graz
last 8 at home
5W
2D
1L
2.13
points a game
2.13
scored a game
0.63
conceded a game
Marseille
last 5 away from home
2W
0D
3L
1.20
points a game
1.60
scored a game
1.80
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Sturm Graz | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| 90% 9/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 8/10 80% |
| 70% 7/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 6/10 60% |
| 40% 4/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 4/10 40% |
| 60% 6/10 | Both teams scored | 5/10 50% |
| 20% 2/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 2/10 20% |
| 30% 3/10 | Failed to score | 3/10 30% |
At half time
Sturm Graz
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
40%
Level
30%
Behind
30%
Marseille
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
10%
Level
60%
Behind
30%
Match Preview & Analysis
Sturm Graz face Marseille in UEFA Europa League. Sturm Graz have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 11 and conceding 8 (1.8 points per game). Marseille have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 9 and conceding 9 (1.2 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
Marseille's counter-attacking efficiency awards them a 63% win probability, presenting genuine betting value for Marseille to Win (2). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-2, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 15% win probability for Sturm Graz, a 22% chance of a draw, and a 63% probability for Marseille. Our top recommended betting pick is Marseille Win (2).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 2, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.95 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Thursday, 22 Oct 2026 at 16:45 (East Africa Time) at Stadion Graz-Liebenau as part of the UEFA Europa League.
