Meistriliiga · Friday, 23 Oct 2026
Nõmme United
Home
4-2
Full time
Venue TBC
Vaprus
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.77
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.02 - 1.09
Win probability
Home
55%
Draw
17%
Away
27%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
53%
1.77
Double Chance
Home/Away
81%
1.16
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72%
1.31
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
69%
1.36
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
77%
1.22
Goals & trends
72%
Over 2.5
69%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
3.11
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
1
Nõmme United wins
0
Draws
1
Vaprus wins
05 Sep 2026
Vaprus
1 - 0
Nõmme United
02 Sep 2026
Nõmme United
3 - 2
Vaprus
Why this prediction
20%
Recent form
13%
40%
Attack
40%
20%
Defence
26%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
55%
Win probability
27%
Home and away record
Nõmme United
last 8 at home
3W
0D
5L
1.13
points a game
2.88
scored a game
1.63
conceded a game
Vaprus
last 8 away from home
1W
1D
6L
0.50
points a game
1.50
scored a game
2.38
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Nõmme United | Vaprus | |
|---|---|---|
| 90% 9/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 9/10 90% |
| 80% 8/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 50% 5/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 60% 6/10 | Both teams scored | 6/10 60% |
| 10% 1/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/10 10% |
| 30% 3/10 | Failed to score | 3/10 30% |
At half time
Nõmme United
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
40%
Level
20%
Behind
40%
Vaprus
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
30%
Behind
50%
Match Preview & Analysis
Nõmme United face Vaprus in Meistriliiga. Nõmme United have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 6 and conceding 12 (0.6 points per game). Vaprus have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 6 and conceding 11 (0.4 points per game).
In their last 2 meetings on record, Nõmme United won 1, Vaprus won 1 and 0 ended level. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 72% and Both Teams to Score at 69%.
With a 55% probability backing Nõmme United, home advantage and superior chance creation make Nõmme United to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 55% win probability for Nõmme United, a 17% chance of a draw, and a 27% probability for Vaprus. Our top recommended betting pick is Nõmme United Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.11 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 69% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Friday, 23 Oct 2026 at 16:00 (East Africa Time) at home stadium as part of the Meistriliiga.
