Segunda Liga · Saturday, 24 Oct 2026
Farense
Home
1-4
Full time
Estádio de São Luís
Penafiel
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.74
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.09 - 1.01
Win probability
Home
58%
Draw
19%
Away
23%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
54%
1.74
Double Chance
Home/Draw
76%
1.24
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66%
1.42
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
62%
1.52
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
74%
1.27
Goals & trends
66%
Over 2.5
62%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
3.1
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Farense wins
0
Draws
0
Penafiel wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
86%
Recent form
60%
66%
Attack
60%
93%
Defence
60%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
58%
Win probability
23%
Home and away record
Farense
last 7 at home
4W
2D
1L
2.00
points a game
2.00
scored a game
0.86
conceded a game
Penafiel
last 6 away from home
3W
2D
1L
1.83
points a game
1.50
scored a game
1.50
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Farense | Penafiel | |
|---|---|---|
| 80% 8/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 8/10 80% |
| 70% 7/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 6/10 60% |
| 20% 2/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 2/10 20% |
| 60% 6/10 | Both teams scored | 5/10 50% |
| 40% 4/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 2/10 20% |
| 10% 1/10 | Failed to score | 3/10 30% |
At half time
Farense
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
40%
Level
40%
Behind
20%
Penafiel
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
50%
Level
10%
Behind
40%
Match Preview & Analysis
Farense face Penafiel in Segunda Liga. Farense have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 10 and conceding 1 (2.6 points per game). Penafiel have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 9 and conceding 6 (1.8 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 66% and Both Teams to Score at 62%.
With a 58% probability backing Farense, home advantage and superior chance creation make Farense to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 58% win probability for Farense, a 19% chance of a draw, and a 23% probability for Penafiel. Our top recommended betting pick is Farense Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.1 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 62% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Saturday, 24 Oct 2026 at 17:00 (East Africa Time) at Estádio de São Luís as part of the Segunda Liga.
