USL Championship · Sunday, 25 Oct 2026
Phoenix Rising
Home
3-3
Full time
Wild Horse Pass Stadium
Lexington
Away
Recommended tip
Away Win @ 1.88
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.4 - 1.6
Win probability
Home
29%
Draw
21%
Away
50%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
2
50%
1.88
Double Chance
Home/Away
78%
1.21
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63%
1.49
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
61%
1.54
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
73%
1.29
Goals & trends
63%
Over 2.5
61%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
3
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Phoenix Rising wins
0
Draws
1
Lexington wins
09 Aug 2026
Lexington
1 - 0
Phoenix Rising
Why this prediction
60%
Recent form
86%
66%
Attack
95%
40%
Defence
66%
5%
Head-to-head
95%
29%
Win probability
50%
Home and away record
Phoenix Rising
last 8 at home
5W
1D
2L
2.00
points a game
2.13
scored a game
1.75
conceded a game
Lexington
last 8 away from home
3W
1D
4L
1.25
points a game
2.25
scored a game
1.88
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Phoenix Rising | Lexington | |
|---|---|---|
| 90% 9/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 80% 8/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 6/10 60% |
| 50% 5/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 5/10 50% |
| 90% 9/10 | Both teams scored | 5/10 50% |
| 0% 0/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 3/10 30% |
| 10% 1/10 | Failed to score | 3/10 30% |
At half time
Phoenix Rising
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
40%
Level
40%
Behind
20%
Lexington
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
70%
Behind
10%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
Lexington |
29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | +18 | 47 |
| 8 |
Phoenix Rising |
29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 39 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Phoenix Rising face Lexington in USL Championship. Phoenix Rising have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 10 and conceding 9 (1.8 points per game). Lexington have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 18 and conceding 5 (2.6 points per game).
In their last 1 meeting on record, Phoenix Rising won 0, Lexington won 1 and 0 ended level. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 63% and Both Teams to Score at 61%.
Lexington's counter-attacking efficiency awards them a 50% win probability, presenting genuine betting value for Lexington to Win (2). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 29% win probability for Phoenix Rising, a 21% chance of a draw, and a 50% probability for Lexington. Our top recommended betting pick is Lexington Win (2).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 61% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026 at 02:00 (East Africa Time) at Wild Horse Pass Stadium as part of the USL Championship.
