Serie D - Girone D · Sunday, 25 Oct 2026
Pavia
Home
3-1
Full time
Venue TBC
USD Casatese
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 2.00
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.78 - 1.07
Win probability
Home
45%
Draw
29%
Away
26%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
47%
2.00
Double Chance
Home/Draw
74%
1.27
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.57
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
40%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.85
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Pavia wins
0
Draws
0
USD Casatese wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
13%
Recent form
40%
26%
Attack
40%
46%
Defence
46%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
45%
Win probability
26%
Home and away record
Pavia
last 4 at home
0W
3D
1L
0.75
points a game
0.75
scored a game
1.25
conceded a game
USD Casatese
last 3 away from home
2W
1D
0L
2.33
points a game
1.33
scored a game
0.33
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
8 matches.
| Pavia | USD Casatese | |
|---|---|---|
| 50% 4/8 | Over 1.5 goals | 5/7 71% |
| 50% 4/8 | Over 2.5 goals | 5/7 71% |
| 38% 3/8 | Over 3.5 goals | 1/7 14% |
| 50% 4/8 | Both teams scored | 4/7 57% |
| 38% 3/8 | Kept a clean sheet | 2/7 29% |
| 50% 4/8 | Failed to score | 2/7 29% |
At half time
Pavia
from 8 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
0%
Level
75%
Behind
25%
USD Casatese
from 7 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
0%
Level
71%
Behind
29%
Match Preview & Analysis
Pavia face USD Casatese in Serie D - Girone D. Pavia have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 4 and conceding 8 (0.4 points per game). USD Casatese have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 6 and conceding 8 (1.2 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 40% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 45% probability backing Pavia, home advantage and superior chance creation make Pavia to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 45% win probability for Pavia, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 26% probability for USD Casatese. Our top recommended betting pick is Pavia Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.85 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026 at 13:30 (East Africa Time) at home stadium as part of the Serie D - Girone D.
