Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Saturday, 24 Oct 2026
Derio
Home
2-1
Full time
Venue TBC
Lagun Onak
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.59
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.28 - 0.83
Win probability
Home
66%
Draw
19%
Away
15%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
59%
1.59
Double Chance
No tip for this market.
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
70%
1.34
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
3.11
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Derio wins
0
Draws
0
Lagun Onak wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
46%
Recent form
20%
53%
Attack
33%
46%
Defence
33%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
66%
Win probability
15%
Home and away record
Derio
last 6 at home
2W
1D
3L
1.17
points a game
1.17
scored a game
1.50
conceded a game
Lagun Onak
last 2 away from home
0W
0D
2L
0.00
points a game
1.00
scored a game
3.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Derio | Lagun Onak | |
|---|---|---|
| 80% 8/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 6/7 86% |
| 20% 2/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/7 57% |
| 10% 1/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 2/7 29% |
| 40% 4/10 | Both teams scored | 5/7 71% |
| 30% 3/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/7 14% |
| 40% 4/10 | Failed to score | 1/7 14% |
At half time
Derio
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
30%
Level
40%
Behind
30%
Lagun Onak
from 5 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
80%
Behind
0%
Match Preview & Analysis
Derio face Lagun Onak in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4. Derio have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 8 (1.4 points per game). Lagun Onak have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 10 (0.6 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 66% probability backing Derio, home advantage and superior chance creation make Derio to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 66% win probability for Derio, a 19% chance of a draw, and a 15% probability for Lagun Onak. Our top recommended betting pick is Derio Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.11 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Saturday, 24 Oct 2026 at 17:00 (East Africa Time) at home stadium as part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
