Serie A · Thursday, 29 Oct 2026
Bahia
Home
3-2
Full time
Arena Fonte Nova
Sao Paulo
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.84
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.95 - 1.01
Win probability
Home
52%
Draw
25%
Away
23%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
51%
1.84
Double Chance
Home/Draw
76%
1.24
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
65%
1.45
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
2.96
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Bahia wins
0
Draws
0
Sao Paulo wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
26%
Recent form
46%
20%
Attack
33%
53%
Defence
60%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
52%
Win probability
23%
Home and away record
Bahia
last 7 at home
4W
2D
1L
2.00
points a game
1.29
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
Sao Paulo
last 8 away from home
0W
3D
5L
0.38
points a game
0.50
scored a game
1.38
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Bahia | Sao Paulo | |
|---|---|---|
| 80% 8/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 60% 6/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 2/10 20% |
| 30% 3/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 0/10 0% |
| 60% 6/10 | Both teams scored | 4/10 40% |
| 20% 2/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 3/10 30% |
| 20% 2/10 | Failed to score | 3/10 30% |
At half time
Bahia
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
50%
Level
40%
Behind
10%
Sao Paulo
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
10%
Level
70%
Behind
20%
Match Preview & Analysis
Bahia face Sao Paulo in Serie A. Bahia have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 3 and conceding 7 (0.8 points per game). Sao Paulo have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 6 (1.4 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
With a 52% probability backing Bahia, home advantage and superior chance creation make Bahia to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 52% win probability for Bahia, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 23% probability for Sao Paulo. Our top recommended betting pick is Bahia Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.96 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Thursday, 29 Oct 2026 at 00:30 (East Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova as part of the Serie A.
