Limited match data: this preview is still updating and is not promoted in search until enough form, standings and prediction evidence is available.
Primera División - Apertura · Sunday, 01 Nov 2026
Progreso
Home
0-2
Full time
Parque Abraham Paladino
Defensor Sporting
Away
Recommended tip
Away Win @ 1.96
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.18 - 1.51
Win probability
Home
20%
Draw
34%
Away
46%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
2
48%
1.96
Double Chance
Draw/Away
79%
1.19
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.38
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
64%
1.47
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
32%
Over 2.5
36%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.69
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Progreso wins
0
Draws
0
Defensor Sporting wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
66%
Recent form
6%
53%
Attack
46%
66%
Defence
26%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
20%
Win probability
46%
Home and away record
Progreso
last 7 at home
3W
0D
4L
1.29
points a game
0.71
scored a game
1.14
conceded a game
Defensor Sporting
last 8 away from home
0W
4D
4L
0.50
points a game
1.00
scored a game
1.63
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Progreso | Defensor Sporting | |
|---|---|---|
| 60% 6/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 40% 4/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 5/10 50% |
| 20% 2/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 5/10 50% |
| 50% 5/10 | Both teams scored | 7/10 70% |
| 40% 4/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/10 10% |
| 10% 1/10 | Failed to score | 2/10 20% |
At half time
Progreso
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
30%
Level
30%
Behind
40%
Defensor Sporting
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
30%
Level
30%
Behind
40%
Match Preview & Analysis
Progreso face Defensor Sporting in Primera División - Apertura. Progreso have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 5 (2 points per game). Defensor Sporting have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 7 and conceding 11 (0.2 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 32% and Both Teams to Score at 36%.
Defensor Sporting's counter-attacking efficiency awards them a 46% win probability, presenting genuine betting value for Defensor Sporting to Win (2). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 20% win probability for Progreso, a 34% chance of a draw, and a 46% probability for Defensor Sporting. Our top recommended betting pick is Defensor Sporting Win (2).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.69 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 36%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 01 Nov 2026 at 13:00 (East Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino as part of the Primera División - Apertura.
