Limited match data: this preview is still updating and is not promoted in search until enough form, standings and prediction evidence is available.
Primeira Liga · Sunday, 01 Nov 2026
Arouca
Home
1-0
Full time
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Nacional
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.96
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.8 - 1.18
Win probability
Home
46%
Draw
22%
Away
31%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
48%
1.96
Double Chance
Home/Draw
69%
1.36
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61%
1.54
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
60%
1.57
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
72%
1.31
Goals & trends
61%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
2.98
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Arouca wins
0
Draws
0
Nacional wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
66%
Recent form
20%
60%
Attack
26%
53%
Defence
26%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
46%
Win probability
31%
Home and away record
Arouca
last 4 at home
3W
0D
1L
2.25
points a game
2.00
scored a game
0.75
conceded a game
Nacional
last 7 away from home
0W
2D
5L
0.29
points a game
0.71
scored a game
1.71
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Arouca | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| 60% 6/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 50% 5/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 5/10 50% |
| 30% 3/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 5/10 50% |
| 40% 4/10 | Both teams scored | 4/10 40% |
| 50% 5/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 2/10 20% |
| 20% 2/10 | Failed to score | 4/10 40% |
At half time
Arouca
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
40%
Level
40%
Behind
20%
Nacional
from 9 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
11%
Level
44%
Behind
44%
Match Preview & Analysis
Arouca face Nacional in Primeira Liga. Arouca have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 9 and conceding 7 (2 points per game). Nacional have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 4 and conceding 11 (0.6 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 61% and Both Teams to Score at 60%.
With a 46% probability backing Arouca, home advantage and superior chance creation make Arouca to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 46% win probability for Arouca, a 22% chance of a draw, and a 31% probability for Nacional. Our top recommended betting pick is Arouca Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.98 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 60% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Sunday, 01 Nov 2026 at 15:30 (East Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca as part of the Primeira Liga.
