Liga de Expansión MX · Sunday, 01 Nov 2026
Leones Negros UDG
Home
3-1
Full time
Estadio Jalisco
Tepatitlán
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.29
Predicted score
3 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.91 - 0.52
Win probability
Home
92%
Draw
3%
Away
1%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
73%
1.29
Double Chance
No tip for this market.
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70%
1.34
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
59%
1.59
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
75%
1.25
Goals & trends
70%
Over 2.5
41%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
3.43
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Leones Negros UDG wins
0
Draws
0
Tepatitlán wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
46%
Recent form
26%
66%
Attack
33%
46%
Defence
13%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
92%
Win probability
5%
Home and away record
Leones Negros UDG
last 6 at home
2W
2D
2L
1.33
points a game
2.50
scored a game
1.83
conceded a game
Tepatitlán
last 6 away from home
0W
0D
6L
0.00
points a game
0.33
scored a game
3.67
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Leones Negros UDG | Tepatitlán | |
|---|---|---|
| 100% 10/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 9/10 90% |
| 60% 6/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 8/10 80% |
| 40% 4/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 70% 7/10 | Both teams scored | 5/10 50% |
| 20% 2/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 0/10 0% |
| 10% 1/10 | Failed to score | 5/10 50% |
At half time
Leones Negros UDG
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
60%
Level
30%
Behind
10%
Tepatitlán
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
20%
Behind
60%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Leones Negros UDG |
10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
| 16 |
Tepatitlán |
9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -23 | 3 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Leones Negros UDG face Tepatitlán in Liga de Expansión MX. Leones Negros UDG have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 10 and conceding 8 (1.4 points per game). Tepatitlán have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 13 (0.8 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 70% and Both Teams to Score at 41%.
With a 92% probability backing Leones Negros UDG, home advantage and superior chance creation make Leones Negros UDG to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 3-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 92% win probability for Leones Negros UDG, a 3% chance of a draw, and a 1% probability for Tepatitlán. Our top recommended betting pick is Leones Negros UDG Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 3 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.43 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 41%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Sunday, 01 Nov 2026 at 18:00 (East Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco as part of the Liga de Expansión MX.
