UEFA Europa League · Thursday, 05 Nov 2026
Benfica
Home
3-1
Full time
Estádio da Luz
Lech Poznan
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.92
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.88 - 1.16
Win probability
Home
49%
Draw
22%
Away
30%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
49%
1.92
Double Chance
Home/Draw
71%
1.32
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62%
1.52
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
60%
1.57
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
72%
1.31
Goals & trends
62%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
3.04
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Benfica wins
0
Draws
0
Lech Poznan wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
95%
Recent form
66%
95%
Attack
80%
73%
Defence
66%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
49%
Win probability
30%
Home and away record
Benfica
last 8 at home
7W
1D
0L
2.75
points a game
2.63
scored a game
0.88
conceded a game
Lech Poznan
last 8 away from home
4W
1D
3L
1.63
points a game
2.13
scored a game
1.63
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Benfica | Lech Poznan | |
|---|---|---|
| 90% 9/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 9/10 90% |
| 70% 7/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 8/10 80% |
| 60% 6/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 60% 6/10 | Both teams scored | 7/10 70% |
| 40% 4/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 0/10 0% |
| 0% 0/10 | Failed to score | 3/10 30% |
At half time
Benfica
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
50%
Level
30%
Behind
20%
Lech Poznan
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
30%
Level
40%
Behind
30%
Match Preview & Analysis
Benfica face Lech Poznan in UEFA Europa League. Benfica have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 15 and conceding 4 (3 points per game). Lech Poznan have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 12 and conceding 5 (2 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 62% and Both Teams to Score at 60%.
With a 49% probability backing Benfica, home advantage and superior chance creation make Benfica to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 49% win probability for Benfica, a 22% chance of a draw, and a 30% probability for Lech Poznan. Our top recommended betting pick is Benfica Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.04 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 60% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Thursday, 05 Nov 2026 at 20:00 (East Africa Time) at Estádio da Luz as part of the UEFA Europa League.
