Liga de Expansión MX · Friday, 06 Nov 2026
Durango
Home
1-0
Full time
Estadio Francisco Zarco
Leones Negros UDG
Away
Recommended tip
Away Win @ 2.00
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.28 - 1.49
Win probability
Home
24%
Draw
31%
Away
45%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
2
47%
2.00
Double Chance
Draw/Away
75%
1.25
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.49
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
59%
1.59
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
37%
Over 2.5
41%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.77
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Durango wins
0
Draws
1
Leones Negros UDG wins
23 Aug 2026
Durango
1 - 2
Leones Negros UDG
Why this prediction
66%
Recent form
66%
86%
Attack
86%
66%
Defence
53%
5%
Head-to-head
95%
24%
Win probability
45%
Home and away record
Durango
last 8 at home
5W
3D
0L
2.25
points a game
2.50
scored a game
0.88
conceded a game
Leones Negros UDG
last 7 away from home
5W
1D
1L
2.29
points a game
2.00
scored a game
1.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Durango | Leones Negros UDG | |
|---|---|---|
| 90% 9/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 10/10 100% |
| 60% 6/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 6/10 60% |
| 50% 5/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 4/10 40% |
| 70% 7/10 | Both teams scored | 8/10 80% |
| 30% 3/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/10 10% |
| 10% 1/10 | Failed to score | 1/10 10% |
At half time
Durango
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
50%
Level
30%
Behind
20%
Leones Negros UDG
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
60%
Level
30%
Behind
10%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Leones Negros UDG |
10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |
Durango |
10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Durango face Leones Negros UDG in Liga de Expansión MX. Durango have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 13 and conceding 5 (2 points per game). Leones Negros UDG have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 13 and conceding 7 (2 points per game).
In their last 1 meeting on record, Durango won 0, Leones Negros UDG won 1 and 0 ended level. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 37% and Both Teams to Score at 41%.
Leones Negros UDG's counter-attacking efficiency awards them a 45% win probability, presenting genuine betting value for Leones Negros UDG to Win (2). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 24% win probability for Durango, a 31% chance of a draw, and a 45% probability for Leones Negros UDG. Our top recommended betting pick is Leones Negros UDG Win (2).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.77 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 41%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Friday, 06 Nov 2026 at 03:05 (East Africa Time) at Estadio Francisco Zarco as part of the Liga de Expansión MX.
