UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 12 Nov 2026
Italy
Home
19:45
d ::
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
France
Away
Recommended tip
Away Win @ 1.77
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.23 - 1.73
Win probability
Home
22%
Draw
22%
Away
56%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
2
53%
1.77
Double Chance
Draw/Away
77%
1.22
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
1.36
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
62%
1.52
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
68%
1.38
Goals & trends
31%
Over 2.5
38%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
2.96
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Italy wins
1
Draws
0
France wins
02 Oct 2026
France
1 - 1
Italy
Why this prediction
44%
Recent form
46%
44%
Attack
73%
55%
Defence
33%
5%
Head-to-head
5%
22%
Win probability
56%
Home and away record
Italy
last 2 at home
1W
0D
1L
1.50
points a game
1.50
scored a game
1.50
conceded a game
France
last 2 away from home
2W
0D
0L
3.00
points a game
2.50
scored a game
0.50
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
8 matches.
| Italy | France | |
|---|---|---|
| 100% 3/3 | Over 1.5 goals | 7/8 88% |
| 33% 1/3 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/8 50% |
| 33% 1/3 | Over 3.5 goals | 3/8 38% |
| 67% 2/3 | Both teams scored | 4/8 50% |
| 0% 0/3 | Kept a clean sheet | 3/8 38% |
| 33% 1/3 | Failed to score | 1/8 13% |
At half time
Italy
from 2 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
50%
Level
50%
Behind
0%
France
from 8 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
25%
Level
38%
Behind
38%
Match Preview & Analysis
Italy face France in UEFA Nations League. Italy have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 3 games, scoring 4 and conceding 4 (1.33 points per game). France have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 11 and conceding 10 (1.4 points per game).
In their last 1 meeting on record, Italy won 0, France won 0 and 1 ended level. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 31% and Both Teams to Score at 38%.
France's counter-attacking efficiency awards them a 56% win probability, presenting genuine betting value for France to Win (2). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 22% win probability for Italy, a 22% chance of a draw, and a 56% probability for France. Our top recommended betting pick is France Win (2).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.96 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 38%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Thursday, 12 Nov 2026 at 19:45 (East Africa Time) at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza as part of the UEFA Nations League.
