UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 12 Nov 2026
England
Home
19:45
d ::
Wembley Stadium
Croatia
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.65
Predicted score
2 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.21 - 0.72
Win probability
Home
63%
Draw
27%
Away
10%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
57%
1.65
Double Chance
No tip for this market.
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.45
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
65%
1.45
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
35%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.93
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
1
England wins
0
Draws
0
Croatia wins
03 Oct 2026
Croatia
0 - 7
England
Why this prediction
80%
Recent form
40%
95%
Attack
33%
60%
Defence
6%
95%
Head-to-head
5%
63%
Win probability
10%
Home and away record
England
last 3 at home
1W
1D
1L
1.33
points a game
1.33
scored a game
0.67
conceded a game
Croatia
last 2 away from home
1W
0D
1L
1.50
points a game
1.00
scored a game
2.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
9 matches.
| England | Croatia | |
|---|---|---|
| 89% 8/9 | Over 1.5 goals | 4/5 80% |
| 67% 6/9 | Over 2.5 goals | 4/5 80% |
| 33% 3/9 | Over 3.5 goals | 2/5 40% |
| 44% 4/9 | Both teams scored | 3/5 60% |
| 56% 5/9 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/5 20% |
| 11% 1/9 | Failed to score | 1/5 20% |
At half time
England
from 9 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
44%
Level
56%
Behind
0%
Croatia
from 5 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
40%
Level
20%
Behind
40%
Match Preview & Analysis
England face Croatia in UEFA Nations League. England have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 19 and conceding 6 (2.4 points per game). Croatia have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 14 (1.2 points per game).
In their last 1 meeting on record, England won 1, Croatia won 0 and 0 ended level. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 35% and Both Teams to Score at 35%.
With a 63% probability backing England, home advantage and superior chance creation make England to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 63% win probability for England, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 10% probability for Croatia. Our top recommended betting pick is England Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.93 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 35%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Thursday, 12 Nov 2026 at 19:45 (East Africa Time) at Wembley Stadium as part of the UEFA Nations League.
