Limited match data: this preview is still updating and is not promoted in search until enough form, standings and prediction evidence is available.
FAW Championship · Friday, 20 Nov 2026
Caerau (Ely)
Home
19:45
d ::
Venue TBC
Newport City
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.81
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.97 - 1.12
Win probability
Home
53%
Draw
20%
Away
28%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
52%
1.81
Double Chance
Home/Away
80%
1.18
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67%
1.40
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
64%
1.47
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
75%
1.25
Goals & trends
67%
Over 2.5
64%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
3.09
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Caerau (Ely) wins
0
Draws
0
Newport City wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
60%
Recent form
53%
60%
Attack
95%
66%
Defence
5%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
53%
Win probability
28%
Home and away record
Caerau (Ely)
last 8 at home
4W
1D
3L
1.63
points a game
2.13
scored a game
1.63
conceded a game
Newport City
last 6 away from home
4W
1D
1L
2.17
points a game
3.17
scored a game
1.83
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Caerau (Ely) | Newport City | |
|---|---|---|
| 80% 8/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 8/10 80% |
| 60% 6/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 7/10 70% |
| 50% 5/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 6/10 60% |
| 40% 4/10 | Both teams scored | 7/10 70% |
| 50% 5/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 1/10 10% |
| 10% 1/10 | Failed to score | 2/10 20% |
At half time
Caerau (Ely)
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
40%
Level
20%
Behind
40%
Newport City
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
20%
Behind
60%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Caerau (Ely) |
12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 13 |
Newport City |
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Caerau (Ely) face Newport City in FAW Championship. Caerau (Ely) have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 9 and conceding 5 (1.8 points per game). Newport City have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 16 and conceding 15 (1.6 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 67% and Both Teams to Score at 64%.
With a 53% probability backing Caerau (Ely), home advantage and superior chance creation make Caerau (Ely) to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 53% win probability for Caerau (Ely), a 20% chance of a draw, and a 28% probability for Newport City. Our top recommended betting pick is Caerau (Ely) Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.09 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 64% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Friday, 20 Nov 2026 at 19:45 (East Africa Time) at home stadium as part of the FAW Championship.
