Championship · Saturday, 21 Nov 2026
Southampton
Home
12:30
d ::
St. Mary's Stadium
Derby
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.29
Predicted score
3 - 0
Goal expectancy (xG)
2.91 - 0.52
Win probability
Home
92%
Draw
4%
Away
1%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
73%
1.29
Double Chance
No tip for this market.
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69%
1.36
Both Teams To Score
No BTTS
59%
1.59
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5
75%
1.25
Goals & trends
69%
Over 2.5
41%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
3.43
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Southampton wins
0
Draws
0
Derby wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
53%
Recent form
26%
53%
Attack
33%
66%
Defence
26%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
92%
Win probability
5%
Home and away record
Southampton
last 8 at home
6W
1D
1L
2.38
points a game
2.63
scored a game
1.13
conceded a game
Derby
last 8 away from home
1W
3D
4L
0.75
points a game
1.00
scored a game
2.00
conceded a game
Goals and both teams to score
How often each side's games have finished this way, over their last
10 matches.
| Southampton | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| 60% 6/10 | Over 1.5 goals | 8/10 80% |
| 50% 5/10 | Over 2.5 goals | 5/10 50% |
| 40% 4/10 | Over 3.5 goals | 4/10 40% |
| 60% 6/10 | Both teams scored | 7/10 70% |
| 30% 3/10 | Kept a clean sheet | 0/10 0% |
| 20% 2/10 | Failed to score | 3/10 30% |
At half time
Southampton
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
50%
Level
20%
Behind
30%
Derby
from 10 games where we hold the half-time score
Led at the break
20%
Level
20%
Behind
60%
Match Preview & Analysis
Southampton face Derby in Championship. Southampton have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 8 and conceding 5 (1.6 points per game). Derby have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 11 (0.8 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 69% and Both Teams to Score at 41%.
With a 92% probability backing Southampton, home advantage and superior chance creation make Southampton to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 3-0, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 92% win probability for Southampton, a 4% chance of a draw, and a 1% probability for Derby. Our top recommended betting pick is Southampton Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 3 - 0, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.43 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 41%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Saturday, 21 Nov 2026 at 12:30 (East Africa Time) at St. Mary's Stadium as part of the Championship.
