Primeira Liga · Sunday, 16 Aug 2026
Arouca
Home
4-0
Full time
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Moreirense
Away
Recommended tip
Home Win @ 1.84
Predicted score
2 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.92 - 1.12
Win probability
Home
51%
Draw
21%
Away
28%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
1
51%
1.84
Double Chance
Home/Away
79%
1.19
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67%
1.40
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
66%
1.42
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
67%
Over 2.5
66%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.04
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Arouca wins
0
Draws
0
Moreirense wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
58%
Recent form
55%
33%
Attack
66%
83%
Defence
55%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
51%
Win probability
28%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aro Arouca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 | Mor Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Arouca face Moreirense in Primeira Liga. Arouca have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 games, scoring 4 and conceding 2 (1.75 points per game). Moreirense have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 3 games, scoring 6 and conceding 4 (1.67 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 67% and Both Teams to Score at 66%.
With a 51% probability backing Arouca, home advantage and superior chance creation make Arouca to Win (1) the primary recommendation. Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 2-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 51% win probability for Arouca, a 21% chance of a draw, and a 28% probability for Moreirense. Our top recommended betting pick is Arouca Win (1).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 2 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 3.04 goals across both sides.
Yes. Both Teams To Score (BTTS / GG) is favored with a 66% likelihood based on recent scoring form and defensive concession rates.
The match takes place on Sunday, 16 Aug 2026 at 17:00 (East Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca as part of the Primeira Liga.
