Championship · Saturday, 12 Sep 2026
Derby
Home
1-2
Full time
Pride Park
Birmingham
Away
Recommended tip
Away Win @ 1.96
Predicted score
1 - 1
Goal expectancy (xG)
1.35 - 1.56
Win probability
Home
27%
Draw
25%
Away
48%
Predictions by market
Match Result (1X2)
2
48%
1.96
Double Chance
Draw/Away
73%
1.29
Over / Under 2.5
No tip for this market.
Both Teams To Score
No tip for this market.
Over 1.5 Goals
No tip for this market.
Goals & trends
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
2.91
Avg goals
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Recent form: last 5 games
Head-to-head
0
Derby wins
0
Draws
0
Birmingham wins
No previous meetings between these teams on record.
Why this prediction
6%
Recent form
20%
26%
Attack
40%
33%
Defence
20%
50%
Head-to-head
50%
27%
Win probability
48%
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bir Birmingham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | Der Derby | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Match Preview & Analysis
Derby face Birmingham in Championship. Derby have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 4 and conceding 10 (0.2 points per game). Birmingham have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 6 and conceding 12 (0.6 points per game).
There are no previous meetings between these sides in our records. Our model puts Over 2.5 Goals at 50% and Both Teams to Score at 50%.
Birmingham's counter-attacking efficiency awards them a 48% win probability, presenting genuine betting value for Birmingham to Win (2). Our algorithm forecasts a most likely final scoreline of 1-1, offering disciplined value for match winner and goals accumulator slips.
Frequently Asked Questions
Google FAQ Schema
Our data-driven prediction model calculates a 27% win probability for Derby, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 48% probability for Birmingham. Our top recommended betting pick is Birmingham Win (2).
The most statistically probable scoreline prediction is 1 - 1, with an expected total goal expectancy (xG) of 2.91 goals across both sides.
BTTS Yes is evaluated at 50%, indicating a higher probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
The match takes place on Saturday, 12 Sep 2026 at 11:30 (East Africa Time) at Pride Park as part of the Championship.
