How to Read Football Odds and Work Out Implied Probability

Kenyan bookmakers show decimal odds, such as 1.85 or 3.40. Once you know how to read them, odds tell you two useful things: what a bet would return, and how likely the bookmaker thinks the outcome is.

1. Potential return

Multiply your stake by the odds. The answer includes your stake.

In an accumulator the odds multiply: three picks at 1.50 give combined odds of 1.50 × 1.50 × 1.50 = 3.38. All three must win.

2. Implied probability

To turn decimal odds into a probability, divide 1 by the odds:

Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds

• Odds of 2.00 → 1 ÷ 2.00 = 50%
• Odds of 1.50 → 1 ÷ 1.50 = 66.7%
• Odds of 4.00 → 1 ÷ 4.00 = 25%

3. The bookmaker's margin

Add up the implied probabilities for every outcome of a market and the total is always over 100%. The extra is the bookmaker's built-in margin. Take a match priced like this:

The 4.8% above 100% is the margin. It means that, over time, bettors as a group get back less than they stake. It is one of the main reasons betting should be treated as entertainment, not income.

4. What "value" means

A price is value when you believe an outcome is more likely than its implied probability. If our model gives the home team a 55% chance and the odds are 2.10 (47.6%), the price looks generous compared with our estimate. That does not mean the bet will win. A 55% chance still fails 45% of the time. Value is about making sensible decisions over many bets, not about any single match.

Using AfriPredictions probabilities

Every match page on AfriPredictions shows our model's home, draw and away probabilities next to our pick. Compare them with the odds you are offered, and remember that no model is perfect. Start with today's predictions.

18+ only. Predictions are informed opinions, not guarantees. Please bet responsibly and never stake money you cannot afford to lose.