1X2 Explained: Home, Draw and Away Football Predictions
By AfriPredictions · · 2 min read
1X2 is the match result market, and it is the one most football predictions are built around. You pick one of three outcomes:
- 1: the home team wins
- X: the match ends in a draw
- 2: the away team wins
How 1X2 settles
1X2 is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If a cup tie is 1-1 after 90 minutes and a team wins in extra time or on penalties, the 1X2 result is still a draw. This matters for knockout matches, so always check which market you are looking at.
Why draws are hard to predict
In most top leagues roughly a quarter of matches end level, yet the draw is rarely the single most likely result of any one game. Our model gives a draw probability for every match, and it is often in the 20-30% range. That is why draw predictions carry higher odds, and why they lose more often than home or away picks.
How to read our 1X2 probabilities
Each match page shows three percentages that add up to about 100%, for example Home 48% · Draw 27% · Away 25%. They are estimates of how likely each result is, based on:
- recent form and results
- goals scored and conceded, at home and away
- the relative strength of the two sides
- past meetings between the teams, where we have them
A 48% favourite is expected to win slightly less than half the time. Over many matches, a well-calibrated model's 60% picks should win about six times in ten, which also means they lose about four times in ten.
Comparing probabilities with odds
Every set of odds implies a probability. If our model rates a result as more likely than the bookmaker's price suggests, the price may be good value. Our guide to reading odds and implied probability shows how to work that out.
See the current picks on our 1X2 predictions page.
18+ only. Predictions are informed opinions, not guarantees. Please bet responsibly.
